数据驱动下图模型冲突分析决策支持系统构建研究
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作者单位:

1.南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106;2.滨州医学院公共卫生与管理学院,烟台264003

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国家自然科学基金(72471117,71971115);智能决策与数字化运营工业和信息化部重点实验室项目(NJ2023027)。


Data-Driven Decision Support System Construction Based on Graph Model for Conflict Resolution
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1.College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;2.School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai 264003, China

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    摘要:

    当今世界由于经济、科技、地缘战略、国际秩序等问题频繁爆发冲突事件,冲突规模正由个体冲突、小规模群体冲突向复杂大规模群体冲突转变。相较于个体间的冲突,大规模群体冲突事件持续时间更长、波及范围更广,易对我国的社会秩序以及经济发展造成恶劣影响。图模型冲突分析(Graph model for conflict resolution,GMCR)理论提供了分析冲突、解决矛盾的有效方案,作为一门专业解决冲突问题的理论工具已经在水资源、环境管理和经济政策等领域得到广泛应用,并取得良好效果。然而,随着冲突事件参与者日渐增多、主体的策略日趋复杂形成了指数级增加的局势,以及主体的偏好行为不确定性加强,传统的决策支持系统GMCRⅡ难以求解此类复杂冲突问题。基于强度偏好冲突分析理论的代数表达,开发了基于.NET平台的冲突分析WEB系统SP-GMCRDSS,该系统包括可行状态生成、状态转移设置、强度偏好序列生成和稳定性分析引擎4个模块,对比现有的系统,SP-GMCRDSS能更高效地辅助冲突分析者解决数据驱动下的大型、复杂的冲突。并且运用文本挖掘技术提取决策者策略数据,辅助分析者确定决策支持系统建模信息的输入,降低模型构建的主观性。最后,通过“兰州水污染冲突事件”演示了该系统的建模、求解以及分析的功能。

    Abstract:

    Nowadays, conflicts frequently occur due to issues such as economy, technology, geostrategy, and international order, and the scale of conflicts is shifting from individual and small-scale group conflicts to complex large-scale group conflicts. Compared to conflicts between individuals, large-scale group conflicts have a longer duration and wider scope, which have a negative impact on China’s social order and economic development. Graph model for conflict resolution(GMCR) has been widely applied to water resources, environmental management and economic policy as a theoretical tool for solving conflict problems, and has achieved good results. However, the increasing number of participants and strategies in conflict have led to an exponential increase in situation, and the uncertainty of the subject’s preference behavior is enhanced, so the traditional decision support system GMCRⅡ is difficult to solve such complex conflicts. Based on the algebraic expression of strength preference conflict analysis theory, this paper designs a conflict analysis WEB system SP-GMCRDSS based on .NET platform, including four modules: feasible state generation, state transition setting, strength preference sequence generation and stability analysis engine. Compared with existing systems, SP-GMCRDSS can more efficiently assist conflict analysts in solving large and complex data-driven conflicts. The text mining technology is used to extract strategy, which can assist analysts to determine the input of decision support system, and reduce the subjectivity of model building. Finally, modeling, solving, and analysis functions of the system are demonstrated through the case “Lanzhou Water Pollution Conflict Event”.

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徐海燕,孔杨,戴思凡.数据驱动下图模型冲突分析决策支持系统构建研究[J].数据采集与处理,2024,(5):1147-1162

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-14