基于传染病模型的突发事件网民情感演变分析
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作者单位:

1.江苏海洋大学计算机工程学院,连云港 222005;2.江苏省海洋资源开发研究院,连云港 222005

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国家自然科学基金(72174079);江苏省高校自然科学研究项目(19KJB520004);江苏海洋大学研究课题(DS202010);江苏省高校科研实践创新计划项目(KYCX20_2931)。


Analysis on Evolution of Netizens’ Emotional in Emergencies Based on Epidemic Model
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Affiliation:

1.School of Computer Engineering, Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang 222005, China;2.Jiangsu Academy of Marine Resources Development, Lianyungang 222005, China

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    摘要:

    突发事件发生后,准确地分析网民的情感状态,实现对网民情感状态演变的引导,对管控突发事件舆情、维护社会稳定有重大的现实意义。依据网民对突发事件的评论特性构建了网民情感状态的完备集,并从突发事件利益相关者和突发事件本身两个角度建立不同情绪集。依据传染病模型的传播方式,建立了基于SIS(Susceptible-infectious-susceptible)传染病模型的网民情感状态演变模型EP-SIS和EO-SIS。利用网民对“新型肺炎病毒”的微博评论对模型进行了实证研究,获取影响因子的权重,模型对网民负面情感转换率为0.72。本文构建的突发事件网民情感演变模型可以从不同角度干预,使突发事件中网民负面情感状态发生演变。

    Abstract:

    After the occurrence of an emergency, it is of great practical significance to accurately analyze the emotional state of netizens and guide the evolution of the emotional state of netizens to control public opinion on an emergency and maintain social stability. According to the characteristics of netizens’ comments on emergencies, a complete set of netizens’ emotional states are constructed, and different emotional sets are established from the perspectives of stakeholders and emergencies themselves. According to the transmission mode of epidemic model, the evolution models of netizens’ emotional states EP-SIS and EO-SIS are established based on susceptible-infectious-susceptible(SIS) epiddemic model. An empirical study is made on the model by using the Weibo comments of netizens on the “New pneumonia virus”, and the weight of influencing factors is obtained. The negative emotion conversion rate of the model for netizens is 0.72. EP-SIS and EO-SIS, the emotional evolution models of netizens in emergencies constructed in this study, can intervene from different angles to make the negative emotional state of netizens evolve in emergencies.

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仲兆满,李恒,杨洪,管燕.基于传染病模型的突发事件网民情感演变分析[J].数据采集与处理,2023,38(3):676-689

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-06
  • 最后修改日期:2023-02-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-05-25